Is Russia Happy with Trump in 2025? Latest Analysis & Geopolitical Shifts →

As Trump eyes a 2024 comeback, does Russia still support him? Breaking down Putin’s stance, U.S.-Russia relations, and 2025 geopolitical dynamics.

Introduction

Since Donald Trump’s presidency, one question has lingered: Is Russia happy with Trump? With Trump likely to run again in 2024, Moscow’s stance on his potential return is under scrutiny.

As of April 2025, Russia faces global isolation over Ukraine, sanctions, and shifting alliances. Does Putin still see Trump as an ally, or has the Kremlin’s calculus changed? This article examines the latest intelligence, expert opinions, and geopolitical shifts shaping this critical relationship.

Trump & Putin: A History of Favorable Relations

The 2016-2020 Era: A Kremlin Favorite?

During Trump’s presidency, he repeatedly praised Putin, calling him a “strong leader.” His skepticism of NATO and reluctance to condemn Russian aggression raised eyebrows.

2018 Helsinki Summit: Trump sided with Putin over U.S. intelligence on election interference, sparking bipartisan backlash.
Ukraine Scandal (2019): Trump’s withheld military aid to Ukraine—demanding an investigation into Biden—led to his first impeachment.

Post-Presidency: Does Russia Still Back Trump?

Since leaving office, Trump has:
✔ Called Putin’s Ukraine invasion “genius” (Feb 2022)
✔ Advocated for a negotiated peace favoring Russia
✔ Criticized U.S. military aid to Ukraine

But in 2025, Russia’s priorities may be shifting.

2025 Update: Is Russia Still Pro-Trump?

1. Ukraine War & Changing Dynamics

Russia’s prolonged war has hardened U.S. policy. Even if Trump returns, experts doubt he could drastically ease sanctions.

Recent U.S. Aid Bill (2024): Congress approved $61B more for Ukraine, signaling bipartisan resistance to Russian expansion.
Putin’s Stance: In a March 2025 speech, Putin avoided praising Trump directly, focusing instead on “American instability.” (Source: Kremlin.ru)

2. Trump’s 2024 Campaign: Mixed Signals

While Trump still calls for “peace talks,” his influence over the GOP’s Russia stance has weakened:

Nikki Haley’s Warnings: GOP rivals labeled Trump “Putin’s puppet,” forcing him to toughen rhetoric.
2025 Polls: Only 32% of Americans believe Trump would handle Russia better than Biden. (Pew Research, Feb 2025)

3. Russia’s Media Strategy

State-controlled outlets (RT, TASS) still frame Trump favorably compared to Biden.
But they’ve also amplified far-left and far-right U.S. voices to deepen divisions.

Would Russia Benefit from a Trump 2024 Win?

Potential Advantages for Moscow

✔ Sanctions Relief: Trump could push to relax economic restrictions.
✔ NATO Discord: His past criticism aligns with Putin’s goal of weakening the alliance.
✔ Ukraine Leverage: Trump might pressure Kyiv into concessions.

But Risks Remain

✖ U.S. Congress Resistance: Bipartisan anti-Russia sentiment limits Trump’s flexibility.
✖ Global Backlash: Allies like Germany may defy U.S. if it softens on Russia.

Expert Opinions: What Analysts Say in 2025

Fiona Hill (Ex-NSC Russia Expert): “Putin prefers chaos over any U.S. leader. Trump’s unpredictability is both an asset and a liability.” (Brookings, Jan 2025)
Dmitri Trenin (Carnegie Moscow): “Russia no longer bets on any U.S. politician—focus is on dividing the West long-term.”

Conclusion: A Complicated Calculus

While Russia once saw Trump as advantageous, 2025’s realities—war fatigue, U.S. political shifts, and global alliances—make his return less of a sure win for Moscow.

Final Verdict: Putin may still prefer Trump over Biden, but the Kremlin is hedging its bets, prioritizing destabilization over any one U.S. leader.